Told you so

... Ok, so that's premature but I am more than ever certain there will be no election this autumn. This about sums it up.

In essence, Brown is a great big coward, the bully personified. He is terrified of losing an immediate election and being turfed out after less than six months in office, consigned to oblivion, reduced to a laughing stock, etc. The comparisons with so fleetingly ignominious a stay in power and Blair's 10-plus years at No. 10 would be more than he could bear. You need only consider Cherie's cackling glee if Brown were to lose a snap election to understand just how utterly determined he will be to avoid even the faintest possibility of defeat.

On the other hand, if he holds out till 2010, however catastrophic his premiership and even if the Labour Party is exterminated in an election then, he will at least be able to claim that he was PM for almost three years. Hardly impressive. Even Heath managed nearly four years.

But a hell of a lot better than five months.

He hasn't sulked and brooded, conspired and plotted for over 10 years to become the prime minister with the second shortest term in office.